| At present, the development of China’s renewable energy power generationindustry is during in the period which is filled with risks and opportunities. On the onehand, the entire industry is in the initial stages of development with fast developing ofthe entire industry, so the investment of power generation projects face many uncertainfactors. On the other hand, the government issued a series of policies and regulations tosupport and promote the development of renewable energy gradually. And thegovernment formulated long-term planning of renewable energy power generationindustry, the planning has brought great opportunities to the renewable energy industry.In order to better assess the value of renewable energy generation projects which is inthe initial stage of development of the industry, this paper summarize and analyze theoption characteristics of renewable energy power generation projects, and build optionvaluation model of renewable energy power generation projects suitable for uncertainenvironment. The main work of this paper have three aspects: the first aspect is theanalysis of options characteristics of the renewable energy generation projects，pointing out that investment in renewable energy generation projects have fourcharacteristics including irreversibility, uncertainty return of investment, investment instrategic and investment exclusive, from the summarize of renewable energy industrycharacteristics and influencing factors. The second aspect is analysis of the sevenfactor of option value of renewable energy power generation projects, which includedegree of uncertainty, initial investment accounted for the entire project investmentratio, competitors on the valuation of the underlying assets, the execution price, thestock basis differences, technological advances, policy changes. The third aspect drawon the thought of the capital asset pricing model, divided the investment risk intosystematic risk and non-systematic risk, and built improvements real options valuationmodel based on risk-adjusted. And put income which is come from the sale of greenelectricity certificate under the quota system into the total value of the project model.This paper selected a typical case of the rapid development of the wind powerindustry to analysis, simulate deduction the application of the model to test theeffectiveness and feasibility of the model, and make recommendations to theinvestment and operation of the project through the sensitivity analysis. Finally,summary of research findings, and to study the presence of defects research prospects. |
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