Applied Research Of Real Option Theory In Making Investment Decision

Instability,in invironment of investment or economy, is always the important character of economy. Recetenly, from the snow storm to earthquake to overhated economy to some inflation and to global financial crisis,everything shows us the high instability.Added to the fast developing technology and products and micro uncertainty, it will make you feel everywhere is instability,at the same time, it also bring unlimited problems to the investment theory and practice.Avoiding risk,pursuing maximizing profit are economic inner requirements. At first, there is financial option theory,which plays a important role in stablizing financial market, to the real market, then there is real option.Though the theory have gain big development on aboard,it is stagnated in mainland. Generally, the study only constrates on the definition. To establish a set of theory which is suitable to our environment and easy to operate is very urgent.This text, beginning with financial option, explicitly introduces the real optiontheory and based on the model of Black-scholes and the pricinple of It(o|^), buildsdifferent mathematic models on completely monopoly and monopoly-competition market. Through analysis, it comes to the different value or value indicators or optium moment for enterprise depending on different economic situation. Further more, it introduces innovation as a real option This theory provides theory support for enterprise's investment practice, at the same time,it promotes the development of our country's real option theory . In the end, it takes Hunan Netcom's investment practice as an example to show the application of real option theory.