On Technology Innovation Investment Decision Of Enterprise Based On Real Option Theory

Along with the increasing globalization of the economy, the technology innovation investment of the enterprises have become more and more widespread and growing uncertainty. In order to consider and utilizes this kind of uncertainty, overcome the defect of the traditional investment decision tool, the method of investment decision on the basis of the real option begin to be favored by everybody. Meanwhile, the competition in the technology innovation investment market is becoming fiercer and fiercer too. Competition impels the state of technology innovation investment market to be more and more complicated, so the traders must consider more thoroughly of the investment decision. However, The time is urgent that the traders need to do the investment decision analyses. Thus those policymakers must analyze their rival, and consider the strategy of the rival abundantly. Therefore, in the investment decision of the technology innovation investment project, we must consider the real option and game thought at the same time on the basis of traditional method of investment decision based on net present value (NPV), and make them combine organically in order to make our investment decisions more scientific and rational.The model that This thesis has adopted is constructed on the theories of Dixit and Pindyck (1994),Trigeorgis (1996) and Lambrecht and Perraudin (1994, 1996) . The more important thing is that this model is applied to the investment decision practice about 3G project of Hunan Province in this thesis. It not only proves the feasibility and validity of this kind of method in reality to some extent, but also plays a key role on the investment decisions of 3G project of Hunan Province.