Research On The Necessities, Difficulties And Prospects Of The Exchange Rate Cooperation In East Asia

Since the 70s of the last century as to say the collapse of the Brayton Woods system, Regional monetary integration has become a rising trend, the EUR. formal integration into the global economy as well as North America's "dollar zone" are the product of this trend, but there has also been frequent outbreaks of the international monetary crisis, interest rates, exchange rate movements severe drawbacks and so on.In 1997 following the Asian financial crisis, out of the IMF (IMF) rescue, as well as dissatisfaction with the adverse economic pattern of the world to re-examine, in particular, in May 2000, "Chiang Mai Initiative" (CMI) has been proposed, the East Asian countries have recognized the importance and necessity of strengthening regional monetary and financial cooperation, and the need for such cooperation is so important in order that the exchange rate cooperation within the region without delay, including: In the short term, the establishment of regional mechanisms for preventing and resolving crises; in the medium term, the reform of arrangements for the East Asian exchange rate system, select the currency"basket peg system", to promote East Asian regional collaboration with the exchange rate; in the long term to maturity of the exchange rate based on collaboration at an early date and strive to achieve a single currency in East Asia - "the East Asian yuan" (ACU). As one of the strengthening of regional monetary cooperation, implementation of regional monetary integration in the core stage, the exchange rate of East Asian regional research collaboration is an important theoretical and practical significance. This exchange rate cooperation within the region are in fact a collective game action (Ding Yibing, 2005), is a dynamic process of gradual, so we should at the ever-changing global political and economic environment, at different levels, phases, sub-region step by step of this collaboration, in collaboration to explore the applicability of the East Asian region in a reasonable exchange rate coordination system, we should also be aware of the exchange rate of the process of cooperation is in fact a "dollars off" of the process to achieve the region as a whole the independence of foreign currency. This is significant important to that lots financial autonomy has been deprived of the East Asian countriesThis paper studies that the necessity, the difficulty may be face to and the prospects of the exchange rate cooperation in East Asia, under the current world economic environment of the Asian financial crisis, left over from the existing exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries to be critical, using correlation analysis and game theory analysis shows that the East Asian region has been the need for the exchange rate after the conclusion of collaboration and cooperation at the present stage of the obstacles facing the analysis, put forward a short-term exchange rate of East Asian regional cooperation should be based on their different currency basket peg as the goal.Then describes the medium-and long-term should achieve "sub-regional" common currency basket peg and the entire East Asian common currency basket peg concept. Finally, through the above analysis, consider finally after a long period of running and understanding the well-coordinated the interests of all countries meet the basic point on, the East Asian region will eventually achieve a single currency in this article from the four areas studied the exchange rate cooperation in East Asia. Chapter I Introduction, the meaning of the topics to discuss economic crisis, against the backdrop of economic globalization, regional cooperation is the exchange rate started rising, and reviewed the existing literature shows that the structure of this paper, the main point of view as well as innovative at.Chapter II, to today's economic globalization as the background, respectively, from the promotion of regional economic cooperation, pegged to the dollar system vulnerability, crisis and regional infectious avoid competitive countries in the region adjust to four different angles to use easy measurement methods and game theory methods to strengthen the exchange rate cooperation in East Asia need to be analyzedChapter III, based on reality, we can see the exchange rate cooperation in East Asia a long way to go this way we still have a long way to go, should face up to in the future course of cooperation and development will face difficulties and obstacles, This is one of the major include: first, the exchange rate means that the cooperation between countries will collaborate to give up their autonomy in exchange rates, most countries in East Asia because of small domestic markets, are export-oriented economy, the exchange rate autonomy is particularly important for export-oriented economy, which is in East Asia exchange rate cooperation facing major obstacles;Second, because of East Asia's exchange rate system selection decision-making are the result of a single country, the independent economic decision-making, lack of basic exchange rate history of collaboration; Third, both the East Asian region like Japan and the four small Asian countries and regions such as, also there is like China and ASEAN countries, developing countries such as economic development of the countries the gap is too large, not the same as the level of development of economic policy will have asymmetric shocks, the desire to weaken the financial cooperation, Fourth, the East Asian countries and regions in the culture are greater differences exist, and the region "nationalism" strongly emphasize the informal nature of cooperation, "Asian traditional" deep-rooted, from the emotionally difficult to accept this kind of exchange rate linkage cooperation model, together with the United States for reasons of national interest considerations, and continuously from obstruction; Fifth, the "Chiang Mai Agreement" is also the system's own limitations hinder the East Asian monetary cooperation to a higher level. The following one by one we will be specific questions on the above analysis, so that we can prescribe the right medicine to find the most suitable exchange rate cooperation in East Asia's institutional arrangements and path selection.Chapter IV, we refer to the academic community about the East Asian exchange rate system, the main controversy over the arrangements for the exchange rate of East Asian regional cooperation prospect, there are four basic perspectives: First, a single currency peg system, mainly referring to McKinnon (2000) the "East Asian Dollar Standard Theory" (the East Asian dollar standard), its claim is pegged to an external nominal anchor; Second, a similar set up within the East Asian ERM exchange rate target zone system, pegged to the internal nominal anchor; are pegged three mixed currency basket system, emphasis in anchoring peg mixed; are four common currency area theory.Through the above four arrangements for the analysis of exchange rate regime, we can easily find a single currency pegged and managed floating system of East Asia exchange rate target zone system, does not fit the East Asia's economic development, the common currency area as a long-term goals at this stage it is unrealistic to implement, in accordance with the actual situation in East Asia, "second best" in a common currency basket peg system would be the most timely model, we are the direction of reform. The common currency area, required a long and arduous process, not only the needs of all countries together, but also required the East Asian countries the overall level of economic development on a new level, this is one of our highest ideals.