Decision Model Of TRM Based On Insurance Theory

TRM evaluation is the key to available transfer capability(ATC) calculation.In the competitive electricity market environment,the principle of consideration to reliability and economy should be adopted in TRM evaluation.In view of the shortcomings in TRM evaluation at present,a new method was given.According to the insurance theory, TRM can be regarded as a kind of fictitious insurance which ensures the transmission reliability in some extent.By application of this conception,the problem of optimum TRM evaluation decision can be easily transformed into a problem of optimum purchase decision of fictitious insurance.On this basis,The Uncertainty factors that influence the reliability of transmission are taken into consideration by Monte-Carlo simulation,and hence derives needed information for TRM evaluation decision.Optimum TRM decision Model considering risk preference and utility maximization was put forward to provide a reasonable TRM decision method framework.