PPP Mode Of Community Endowment Service Investment Decision-making Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

With the continuous development of society and the continuous increase in the number of aging population,how to support the old China has become the most concerned about today’s society.At present,China’s family structure gradually smaller,the family pension function gradually weakened,coupled with the traditional concept of old-age support,most elderly people also difficult to accept the "nursing home" type of pension model,in this condition,a new pension model--Community pension is presented.In order to solve our problem of old age,the government began to increase support for community pension projects.In order to promote the promotion of community pension model,the government needs to provide a lot of financial support,in order to alleviate the government financial pressure,PPP model in the community pension service project was put forward.However,because the community pension model is a new pension model,coupled with the current PPP mode of community pension services are still in the implementation stage,making such projects have a high investment risk.In this context,the article identifies the key risk of influencing the project investment decision by identifying and analyzing the risk factors of the community pension service project,and determines the government to share the key risk factors in the PPP mode,and establishes the government risk sharing This paper uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the decision variables in the model and analyzes the sensitivity of the main variables.By analyzing the simulation results and the results of the sensitivity analysis to judge the project risk size,So as to make investment decisions.First of all,by reading a lot of literature,to understand the PPP project investment decision-making,PPP project investment and financing and pension services in the domestic and international research status,while the PPP model concept,characteristics,advantages andcommunity pension concept,necessity and project investment decision Theory has been sorted out.And provide the theoretical basis for the application of PPP model in the old-age service project.Secondly,taking the community pension project as the research object,by analyzing the possible risks that the project company may face during the concession period,the factors that may affect the investment decision of the PPP project in the community are initially identified,and the identified risk factors are analyzed by the demetal method.The main risks affecting the investment decisions of such projects are market demand risk,lack of operating income,industry competition risk,low operating efficiency and change of charge price.Thirdly,it analyzes the necessity of government risk sharing in PPP decision making of community pension service,uses the questionnaire to determine the key risk factors shared by the government,points out the impact of government risk sharing on investment decision,and quantifies the key risk factors,The probability distribution is determined,and the investment decision model of the community pension PPP project is established,and the data after the quantification is introduced into the investment decision model.Finally,combined with the case data of the PPP project in the community,the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the net present value,the investment payback period and the internal rate of return.Whether the main variable Sensitivity analysis is carried out to verify the feasibility of the investment decision model by analyzing the simulation results and sensitivity analysis.