The Research About Measurement Of Chongqing's Real Estate Bubble And Financial Suggest

Chongqing, being municipality since 1997, has been a period of rapid growth and GDP growth rate maintain an annual 10% above in the context of domestic macro-economic "double high" growth. While the rapid development of Chongqing's the real estate started in 2000, and remained the same pace with the cycle. We learned from Lessons in Japan, Hong Kong, Beihai and Hainan that in such a high investment, high-credit-driven growth, the high real estate investment will be act as a double-edged sword, which enhances the industrial and socio-economic development while bring a continuous rise in house prices, inflation, imbalances in resource allocation problems. In this regard, the real estate developers, local government, the interests of the bank to start the game behavior in the system, under the conditions of market imperfections, and the result is the formation of "window-induced" effect, leading to excessive demand for factor inputs and false, which caused the real estate bubble.It is extremely important to ascertain the meaning and nature of the border. However, there is no consensus among the experts on the definition of bubble economy.First of all, this study analyzed the economic well-known scholars of different views on bubble economy, which could be refined and summarized as follows: the reasons of bubble economy's formation are complex, macro-economic environment and the larger changes in the structure of the system lead to the high degree of expectation uncertainty and is exacerbated by economic regulations, norms and culture of social credit imbalance. Ultimately developing into a moral hazard and herding from anxiety accelerates the rapid price fluctuations, and ultimately the formation of a bubble inflated.On this basis, this study defines the real estate bubble as: housing, land and formed the subject of securitization of assets, non-rational prices hike irrespective of basic value in the short time eventually go beyond market's tolerance. Therefore, the first step in studying real estate bubble is ascertaining the measuring period. In the country and Chongqing through the comparative study of real estate development, this study has identified for the 2001-2007 as time period, followed by the establishment of Chongqing, the dynamics of the real estate bubble since the handover inspection, test the causal model and VAR model to analyze the room price and land price bubble, and its therelationship between the two. Since the return of the test results support the existence of mild Chongqing price bubble in real estate; causality test results indicate that housing prices in Chongqing and land prices there is a two-way causal relationship, the two complement each other feedback; VAR model impulse response analysis of the process of the two, indicating that the price of land is not affected the real main reason for rising house prices to accelerate.In accelerating the process of bubblization, excessive financial support has played a role in adding fuel to the flames; in the process of bubble burst, financial support has translated into a transmission mechanism to accelerate the transmission of the bubble in the financial sector and ultimately to other areas of socio-economic proliferation. The financial support is one of the foundations in the bubble formation and development. The study will include it into the evaluation system of indicators. Referred to relative studies at home and abroad and practical situation, the indicators measuring system of Chongqing's real estate bubble and Que data are established, and the overall 2007 real estate bubble in Chongqing index was calculated to 1.3, that is, the overall development is in the overheated trend and the local bubble began to emerge.This is mainly caused by overheating investment in a macro-level. And the structural problems of the real estate exacerbate bubblization while the overall lack of financial support curb the emergence of a bubble. Meso-level, comparative analysis of this study in Chongqing, the specific circumstances of the regional real estate, real estate development in Chongqing seriously imbalanced. Since then, the built in Chongqing City in the forefront of the real estate factor analysis models, analysis of technical efficiency and scale efficiency, technical progress and reached economies of scale exist at the same time decreasing the conclusion of the process of micro-effects of the imbalance in the region caused by elements of the allocation efficiency and low waste, and then translated into the local bubble; and macroeconomic effects, the result of real estate for investment out of other industries.To sum up, the overheating of the real estate in Chongqing due to macroeconomic environment, institutional factors, as well as balanced regional development. The performance of the macroeconomic environment for economic growth mainly depends on the stimulation of investment, excessive real estate investment, as well as balanced regional industrial structure is not caused by "overheated" and "cool" co-exist. This imbalance led to the financial support of non-balanced, with the result that "overheating" regional bias "bubble", as well as a whole to cover up the existence of local bubbles. In this regard, the Government must play a lead role in the market and reasonable industrial layout planning, and improve housing security system, to actively develop the rental housing market, and steadily push forward the real estate tax reform, and improve policies related to land.