Research On The Risk Early Warning System In Chinese Commereial Banks

Along with economic globalization, the degree of dependence on each other in world economy is getting higher and higher, commercial banks risk outbreak much easily, the destructive and impact has become increasingly evident.At present, China's commercial banks risk management emphasis on risk control and a matter of remedial often overlooked prior management of risk. Experience has shown that a large number of banks in the course of business, the risk of hidden dangers found in the earlier, the losses caused by the lower ratio. Therefore, the risk of commercial banks to establish an early warning system is especially important at the present stage.This study of China's commercial banks from the operation and management of their own point of view, on the basis of identification and analysis of characteristics, classification and the causes of the commercial banks risks , use the the mathematical quantitative analysis methods to build a system of early warning indicators of risk, and thus make a comprehensive evaluation of risk analysis, combined with the forecast time series analysis, design an early warning system model,that is adapt to the particularity of China's commercial banks.At finally, make an empirical research.through the sample of banks.Compared to the existing risk of early warning systems of commercial banks, this article built the risk of early-warning system has some advantages, mainly reflected in: (1) used AHP to calculate the size of the weights of single indicator. (2) application of a multi-index comprehensive evaluation of the analysis of the commercial banks risk in favor of grasp a comprehensive level of risk overall. (3) the risk early warning system use scientific methods, can to report on possible future risks to operators and investors timely.