The Research Of Commercial Bank Risk Early Warning System

Along with economic globalization,the degree of dependence on each other inworld economy is getting higher and higher,commercial banks risk outbreak mucheasily,the destructive and impact has become increasingly evident.At present,China’scommercial banks risk management emphasis on risk control and a matter ofremedial often overlooked prior management of risk.Experience has shown that alarge number of banks in the course of business,the risk of hidden dangers found inthe earlier,the losses caused by the lower ratio.Therefore,the risk of commercialbanks to establish an early warning system is especially important at the presentstage.This study of China’s commercial banks from the operation and managementof their own point of view,on the basis of identification and analysis ofcharacteristics,classification and the causes of the commercial banks risks,use the themathematical quantitative analysis methods to build a system of early warningindicators of risk,and thus make a comprehensive evaluation of riskanalysis,combined with the forecast time series analysis,design an early warningsystem model,that is adapt to the particularity of China’s commercial banks.Atfinally,make anempirical research.through the sample of banks.Compared to the existing risk of early warning systems of commercialbanks,this articlebuilt the risk of early-warning system has some advantages,mainlyreflected in:(1)used AHP to calculate the size of the weights of singleindicator.(2)application of a multi-index comprehensive evaluation of the analysis ofthe commercial banks risk in favor of grasp a comprehensive level of riskoverall.(3)the risk early warning system use scientific methods,can to report onpossible future risks to operators and investors timely...