Study On A Class Of Models For Real Estate Price And Returns Evaluation

An urgent requirement of the market development is to achieve real estate assessment finely, so establishing a highly efficient real estate assessment method is an effective means and an inevitable trend.With the support of National Natural Science Fundation project "research on the Mixed Appraisal system for the price and returns of real estate" (No.70573066)and the National Natural Science Fundation of Shanxi Province project "research on the nonlinear doubly stochastic forecasting system for the price and returns of real estate" (No.20041009) which are headed by Zhang Suodi, the paper makes a class of appraisal models study on real estate price and returns and gets the main conclusions as follows:1. Bring forward an Appraisal method of the Weight Changeable Combination Appraisal Model based on the Nonlinear Doubly Stochastic ModelThe paper brings forward the Weight Changeable Combination Appraisal Model based on the Nonlinear Doubly Stochastic Model AR (1 ) -MA(0 ) and Gray System Model GM (1 ,1), studies the determination method of the weight changeable combination coefficient on appraisal time, and gives a case study by using Chinese real estate stock Vanke shares A(000002). Contrasting the appraisal results, we get the conclusion that the Weight Changeable Combination Appraisal Model can significantly improve prediction accuracy.2. Bring forward an Appraisal method of the HS Expected Assessment Method to real estate price and returnsReseaching on the psychological bias of real estate market participants, considering the impact of the real estate market players expected to the future and combining the HS theory, the paper brings forward the HS Expected Assessment Method based on the bounded rational market players which considerate to the future expected impact. Then, the paper gets the point that a stable market conditions, non-stable market conditions expected assessment model have been established, and then the simulation and case studies are given precise conclusions of the real estate assessment.3. Constructe an Appraisal method of the Mixed Appraisal Model based on real estate price and returns assessment simultaneouslyThe paper establishs the Mixed Appraisal Model based on real estate price and returns assessment simultaneously, and gets the conclusion that the model can do a more precise assessment based on the real estate stock market weekly price in January, 2003-January, 2007 of empirical studies. The conclusions can give all participants the decision-making, at the same time; can give theory innovative and some references to practical.