Research On Land Use Scale Of Region Logistics Park Based On Weight Changeable Combination Forecast Method

With global economic integration and China's rapid economic development, the logistics industry regarded as the pillar industry of national economy and new economic growth point, is increasingly playing an important role. As an integral part of logistics operation, Logistics Park is an essential link in the formation and development of logistics industry. Due to many factors affecting the scale of Logistics Park site, there is no effective method to determine the size scale.In this paper, combining the theory of Logistics Park and its practical experience, the land use scale of regional logistics park land is predicted in an appropriate way.The thesis summarizes the current research status of logistics park at home and abroad. From the system and macroscopic perspective, the key functions of logistics parks and layout features are formulated, the logistics park land scale factors and established principles and procedures are analyzed, and the main parameters of regional logistics park land size are addressed, which is named as the regional logistics quantity. Focusing on the weight changeable combination forecasting method, the optimal weight changeable combination forecast of a polynomial variable weighting function is proposed, which is suitable for short-term forecast with lower forecast error than other methods but not for the long-term forecast. Thus the above proposed is transformed to a polynomial convergence form and the corresponding algorithm is put forward. This forecasting method has better performance than the fixed weight combination forecasting method, which is slightly inferior to the optimal weight changeable combination forecast but much better on the occasion of long-term forecasting. Through forecasting analysis and comparison of regional freight volume in Changsha City and Hunan Province, the result shows that:with the polynomial convergence form of the weight changeable combination forecasting method fits for the short-term and long-term forecast with considerable satisfying effectiveness.Finally, the formula is modified which uses parameter method to compute the land's size, and the parameters are discussed in detail.The total land size of regional logistics parks in Changsha, Hunan Province in 2015 is also predicted by the method of integrating quantity and quality. Prediction results have lots of significance and value on the programming and layout of land use scale of Logistics Park. And it also can provide references for government formulating policies which are relevant to development of regional logistics.