Research On Strategy Risk Management Based On Scenario Analysis

While changes in the environment speed up and grow complexity, how to deal with uncertainty turns into the forefront of enterprise strategy management, and this situation asks for the use of dynamic way of thinking to manage the biggest risk——risk of strategy.Comprehensive using research paradigms of comprehensive use of strategic management and risk management, using thinking and methods of system science for reference, taking management of risk of strategy as the research object, integrating qualitative and quantitative, deduction and induction, empirical study and standard, this paper tries to establish a strategic risk Mode and evaluate it in different scenarios by AHP, and then gives the risk management methods. It helps owners and operators quantitatively evaluate the business risks and changes in trends, and develop appropriate risk management strategies vertically. It also assists investors to understand the overall industry risk level horizontally and evaluate the risk of enterprise strategy and investment value.(A) This paper puts forward a overall research framework of enterprise strategy risk systematically. This article studies on the history and current situation of strategy risk research at home and abroad, analyses theoretical and practical issues of the contemporary research in this area, makes clear the objective, meaning and methods of this study. Based on the summarization of the concept of strategy and risk, this study makes its own concept of enterprise strategic risk. And then analyzes elements of strategy, builds a hierarchical model of strategic risk as strategy risk elements are transformation form of strategy elements under certain conditions. After the concept of strategic risk management is proposed, and draw on the framework strategy risk management research.(B) This paper puts forward the method of strategy risk evaluation in a variety of scenarios by AHP. In summing up methods of scenario analysis and AHP, this paper constructs a model of quantitative assessment of strategy risk and management methods. Scenario analysis can be used to simulate a variety of future scenarios. Combining with the strategy risk hierarchical model, we can make quantitative evaluation of strategy risk by use of AHP.(C) This paper makes full use of forward theories to build up scientific methods of strategy risk management. Enterprises can monitor and early warn strategy risks by identification and monitoring the key signs of scenarios, and also can make strategy work well in several of scenarios by building strategy flexibility or make a strategic choice in different scenarios by building strategic options.(D) This paper takes a case of a power company as positive analysis. of the proposed model ,and achieves unification of theory and practice.