Research On Problem And Policy To Excess Liquidity Of Credit Funds In Commercial Bank

In recent years,due to huge amount of the balance of payment surplus in successive years in China and excessively high domestic resident savings, together with the impact of slow development of the capital market, surplus funds inflates suddenly in bank system and the problem of excess liquidity in the commercial banks is coming to emerge ,which has greatly imposed on economic development, financial operation and policies, etc. Primary Minister Wen Jiabao also specifically indicated this distinct problem of excess liquidity in the Fifth Session of the Ninth NPC and the Tenth Session of National Committee of CPPCC in 2007. Therefore, how to resolve the problem of excess liquidity in our commercial banks is the key to develop national economy rapidly and soundly.Here starting from the points of credit funds of commercial banks, this thesis gives a clear definition of the related concept for excess liquidity. Based on the judgment method of excess liquidity, this thesis has analyzed the present situation of excess liquidity by using separately five targets --difference between deposits and loans, the proportion for loans and deposits, excess deposit reserve in central bank, the rate of money market and currency supply. And then this thesis has elaborated in detail the major effect of excess liquidity in commercial banks from four aspects. Meanwhile, this thesis in theory analyzes the mechanism of excess liquidity of credit funds of commercial banks. By means of difference between deposits and loans, foreign exchange reserve, savings deposit and the stock market price, this thesis builds an econometric model through analyzing the causes of excess liquidity in commercial banks according to the monthly data from 2001 to 2008. The result shows that both growth rates of foreign exchange reserve and savings deposit have a remarkable positive correlation with the growth rate of deposit-loan difference of banks, but the growth rate of stock market value take an adverse affection,but position for foreign exchange reserve and savings deposit are more explicable than the stock market price. Finally, grounded on theory analysis and the conclusion of empirical analysis, some policy suggestions are given. In short term, the central bank should adopt the synthesis utilization many kinds of monetary policy tool, further consummate the foreign exchange rate system and reform foreign exchange reserve management system, etc. In long term, this thesis deems that it's a better way to promote the multiplication management in commercial bank, to actively propel financial innovation, to develop the financial market vigorously as well as to diligently strengthen consumption anticipation in resident so to expand the domestic consumption demand.