Forecasting Prices Of Agricultural Products Based On The Exponential Smoothing Model

In recent years, with the rapid development of science and technology, economy and society have made great progress, meanwhile a large mount of date such as agricultural prices have been produced in various fields. It has come to the point that many important information are behind the dramatically increasing of date. Now simply query with database is no longer satisfying our demand. Additionally we hope to be able to carry out data analysis over a higher level in order to extract useful information or knowledge from the large mount of data or knowledge for decision-making.Prices of agricultural products are affected by the market in a high extent, especially the relationship between supply and demand of agricultural products, while the price itself especially in the international markets is subject to natural conditions, social and economic conditions. Therefore forecasting agriculture products prices shall be a difficult but significant job. Though price is influenced by the fluctuations of supply and demand, seasonal, region etc, it still has certain regularities when related to a long period.Exponential smooth is a forecasting method using random time series which is quite mature in mathematical field. It has been widely used in health, economic and other fields, it is now recognized as one of the advanced madels which are applicative in economic forecasting for a country or a region. Whether this approach is also adaptive for forecasting agricultural products prices or not is ambiguous, so this theis is object to this subject.We research time series data mining through the objectively analyze records of past acts in history, reveal its inherent la regular pattern, further more forecast future behavior which is available for decision-making. Our thesis is in view of time series analysis based on exponential smoothing method in order to forecast price trends of agricultural products.This thesis is based on the exponential smooth model, we establish a tomatoes exponential smoothing model which according to its price fluctuation during a long time, fitting the model with the historical trend of tomatoes. And then we can obtain the price of tomatoes in following years according to this model. The results show out that this model can effectively carry out fitting and forecasting the price curve of tomatoes.Finally, in order to achieve automatic processing in forecast prices of agricultural products, a Web-based data mining to collect the prices of agricultural products is designed and implemented, then this system can be realized query, retrieval, prediction.