The Empirical Study On Price Fluctuation Of Agricultural Products Prices

The overall price level stability" is always one of the basic goals of government macro-control, because the overall price level fluctuations will affect many aspects in the process of a country’s overall economic operation. And since2003, the price level of our country has experienced three big fluctuation. Every time the price fluctuation is closely related to the price of agricultural products. In this context, many scholars have studied the relationship between the prices of agricultural products and the price level. But the study on the relationship between China’s agricultural product prices and price fluctuations mainly investigated a causal relationship between the two. As the processing methods and data used by different scholars in the study are different, the conclusions are also different. And the study did not take into account the differences between the various provinces. At the same time, many previous studies have some limitations in research methods. On the basis of the previous studies, this paper through theoretical analysis, descriptive statistical analysis method and empirical analysis, in-depth to explore the impact of China’s agricultural products price fluctuations on the price level. This article first obtains from the price level accounting scope in theory, expounds the relationship between the prices of agricultural products and price level. Secondly, use descriptive statistics description and comparison the correlation of China’s agricultural product price fluctuation and price fluctuation trend since2002. Third, this paper selects producer price index, agricultural products price index and the producer consumer price index with the quarterly data from the first quarter of2002to the fourth quarter of2013, by constructing a structural vector autoregressive model, study the mutual influence mechanism between China’s agricultural products price index, the producer price index and the consumer price index. On the conclusion that the fluctuation of agricultural products price has a significant impact on the price level, selected agricultural products price index and consumer price index data from the first quarter of2004 to the fourth quarter of2013of our country30provinces, city, autonomous region (except Tibet, Tibet and Hong Kong and Macao no statistical agricultural products price index), through individual time fixed effect variable coefficient panel model to explore whether consumer price production prices affect residents in China agricultural products has obvious difference between province. Fourth, through the empirical research on the price level influence on the price fluctuation of agricultural products, the conclusion is as follows.1. China’s agricultural products price volatility has a significant effect on PPI and CPI, PPI and CPI fluctuations are mainly influenced by the agricultural product price fluctuation, and the effect of agricultural production level fluctuations on the price level of our country is short.2.China’s PPI and CPI conduction effects are not obvious even in the lag period.3.The effect of CPI and the prices of agricultural products on the CPI have differences between provinces. China’s eastern provinces of the price level volatility are generally small, and the fluctuations of the central and western areas of the provinces of the price level is large. The agricultural production in the western region of China prices pull more to CPI, for the circulation of agricultural products (including strong inflows and outflows) provinces, the pulling effect in the prices of agricultural products on CPI is not obvious. Fifth, according to the above conclusions, the paper proposed the following policy recommendations.1.guarantee for the agricultural products supply,.improving agricultural subsidy policy, improve the enthusiasm of farmers, allow reasonable fluctuations in prices of agricultural products.2.improving agricultural product price regulation system.3.accelerate the construction of market circulation system of agricultural products, strengthen the provincial characteristics of agricultural products and other province circulation.4.strengthening the construction of agricultural products market management and relevant laws and regulations.