Research Of The Optimal Scale Of Investment In Real Estate Under The Conditions Of Uncertainty

Both the global economic structure adjustment in the 21st century and the development of China's industrialization and urbanization supply new chance for the development of China's real estate. But since 2008, especially in the financial turmoil, National real estate market downturn in the general situation there,for example: housing prices decline in varying degrees,the profit margin of real estate reduces. Therefore,to the real estate developers,in the large environment of economic downturn, how to catch new chance to meet new challenge, how to improve economic benefits and competitiveness of real estate market continuously, how to reduce the cost of real estate development and maximize the investment returns, how to find the balance between the rates and profits, how to achieve the investment target of the most reasonable investment and maximizing the benefits and how to determine the optimal scale of investment become the developer's top priority.As a pillar of the national economy, real estate plays an irreplaceable role in promoting national economic development,the industry linkage of it is big and the role of upper and lower linkage is strong. As a form of investment in kind, during the process of real estate investment ,it exites systematic risk such as market demand and supply, liquidity, interest rates and political risk and so on, non-systemic risk such as management, the financial situation of enterprises, corporate credit and pre-decision risk and so on.it is full of uncertainty, together with the developers having the right to choose in the future,so we can use real option theory to analyse real estate development projects.In this paper, we use real options theory to analyse real estate investment,and use B-S option pricing formula to make an accurate estimate of the value of development projects,and then provide a basis to make correct investment decisions For the developer.In the case of developers on development projects to make investment decisions,the article accurately y estimate and analyse the relevant parameters affecting project investment and the project cash flow range by the use of mathematical expectation method, solve the correct value of volatility using numerical methods according to the current existing price index, accurately measure the risks of the project with risk,and then greatly reduces the risk of project development and improve the reliability of the development of decision-making.At last, on the base of an accurate estimated analysis of the relevant parameters affecting project investment,this articl uses simulating-data method and the RAND function in excel to simulate the M k and U k in the cash flow estimates range,and simulate net present value and option value for many times(generally greater than 50 times) according to the formula of net present value and option value with M k and U k as independent variables,then find the max value of investment income and to identify with the values of the corresponding value of cash outflows,this value is the optimal scale of investment required to solve in this paper.The purpose of this study is to solve the problem of distribution of funds in the process of enterprise development and investment in real estate, and find the optimal scale of investment in every period in the case of phased development.