| Commercial bank is a special enterprise with comprehensive service functions that aims to gain operating profit and mainly works on financial assets and financial liabilities. Loan business is one of the major asset businesses for commercial banks and it is the primary means generating profits. Among all types of bank loans, the project loan has gradually become one of the major types of bank loans and it is an important fund-raising means for many large Chinese enterprises or large-scale projects. Due to the characteristics of project loan, such as high levels of expertise, complex management process, large scale, long period and etc, the risk assessment and management for such loan is much more complicated than those for average borrowers. The credit risk management for bank project loan includes project risk identification, risk evaluation and measurement, risk monitoring, warning, loan risk management and so on, among which the evaluation and measurement of bank credit risk management is the crucial foundation as well as a key element of the whole process of risk management. Therefore, the establishment of a scientific, rational, objective and comprehensive evaluation system that quantifies the credit risk for banks is extremely vital in terms of ensuring the accuracy, objectivity and comprehension of the bank's credit quality asset evaluation, obtaining effective risk management, reducing the risk of loss of the loan to ensure the security of credit funds, improving banks economic efficiency, and achieving international standards of modern commercial banks. This paper studies the current risk problems existed in project loan financing. Based on the loan financing decision-making of Huangdao power plant project, the quantitative assessment of commercial bank project loan risk has been selected as a topic. Combined with theoretical models related to risk analysis of loans, it researches on the decision-making of project loans, types of risk and risk control and explores the scientific methods that applicable to project loan credit risk and measurement of solvency for Chinese commercial banks in order to form methods and ideas suitable to the large and medium-sized project loan financing. Chapter one of the thesis is the introduction part. It states the basis and background of the research topic, summarizes both domestic and foreign research foundations, and determines the general idea, content and research methods, while clarifying both innovative and inadequate aspects of this thesis. Chapter two outlines the project loan risk. It introduces the concept of credit risk, its characteristics and classification and etc. In addition, it identifies the major loan risks of 2X600MW Shandong Huangdao Power Plant Expansion Project Phase III and indicates the principal risk of the project is credit risk; Chapter three is the most important part. Based on the introduction of the concept of credit risk and its characteristics, detailed qualitative and quantitative analysis has been conducted for the credit risk of Huangdao power plant project. It evaluates the roles of relevant factors on credit risk and the extent of their impacts, based on profitability, solvency and other financial indicators. It also introduces and builds a VAR-based risk measurement econometric model to quantify the risk of Credit Metrics analytical framework, quantitatively analyses the feasibility of the project loan, and verifies the effectiveness of the principal component,i.e. Credit Metrics model, and draws conclusions to empirical studies. Chapter Four is on the content of risk control. The ultimate aims of risk identification and assessment are: first it is for the decision-making of the approval of project loans; second, it is for risk-control. A preliminary study is conducted for problems related to loan risk, based on aspects, such as monitoring, management and security. Some opinions and suggestions are also put forward. Chapter Five summarizes the main contents of the full text and draws conclusions and recommendations. |
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