The Research On Yingkou Urban Landuse Expansion Forecast Based On GIS And Geo-CA

Most of the city in our country are in the initial stage of fast expanding currently,more and more construction land will be needed, due to urbanization and industrialization. We must make reasonable decisions for urban land, so that the city can develop rationally and continually. Because of the complexity of city system, traditional methods can not imitate the development of city and changing of land-use, So we need new techniques for forecasting the city changing, and make reasonable decisions.This paper analyzes the mechanism of urban expansion, the pattern of urban expansion and the model of imitating urban expansion and introduces the theory of CA. Based on previous studies and the theory of CA, it integrated with the technique of GIS and RS, in the environment of secondary development of GIS. The paper designs the model system named GIS-CA, simulates and forecasts the urban expansion of Yingkou city, in the province of Liaoning, China.The conclusions of this paper are as followed:(1) The integration of GIS and CA enhances the function of GIS in spatiotemporal dynamic modeling. By using GIS, it is easy to collect data which is needed by CA. The results of simulation can directly dynamically visualize, and be statistical analyzed by using the function of ArcGIS. It proves that the integration of GIS and CA is a feasible method for simulating urban expansion.(2) By using GIS-CA model, we can forecast imitate the tendency of urban land use changes of Yingkou city, and the result is reasonable. Accuracy of imitation can achieve above 70%. In addition, this paper predicts expansion of city land-using of Yingkou city in 2020. From the result, we can find that the rate of Yingkou's expansion is increasing, the area of urban increases continually, and occupation of rural land is increasing. From1988 to 1998, the urban land-use grows on the boundary of city and increases slowly; from 1998 to 2006, the shape of the city land-use change is like a star influencing by line of transformation and plan factors, the speed is quickly. In the next ten years, the area of expansion is mainly in the east and southwest of the city, other direction can also be developed.The result can provide references for city developing and land-use programming, help the manager making efficient policy of land administration.