Study On Dynamical Mechanism And Prediction Of Urban Land Expansion In Wuhu City

As one type of land use that has been exerted the deepest influence by human beings,urban land has the direct bearing on the coordinated development of population, economy,society, resource and environment. With the rising speed of industrialization andurbanization in our country, urban land expansion is and will be the main characteristic ofthe land use in the following decades. The study on the change of urban land scale and onthe spatial extension will have significant influence on the scientific establishment ofland use planning and city planning, on the promotion of rational utilization of urbanland, and on the protection of farmland.Basing on the existing researches, this paper employs a use of the relative theory inurban geography, location theory, land use planning, regional economics, system theoryand so on. In terms of the expansion of urban land scale and space, this paper hasprovided detailed explanation of the diving mechanism of the urban land expansion inWuhu, constructed the extended forecasting model of the scale and space of urban land inWuhu, simulated and predicted the urban land expansion under different levels ofintensity, which will provide decision supports for the related planning and management.This paper is divided into six chapters:Chapter1: simply explains the background and meaning of this paper, summarizesthe research progresses on urban land expansion from local and foreign studies, and thenon this basis, elaborates the research content and technique route of the paper.Chapter2: based on the intension and meaning of this paper, defines the connotationof urban land, urban land scale and urban land expansion, and elaborates the related basictheories.Chapter3: introduces the general situation of Wuhu society and economy, analyzesthe urban land expansion of Wuhu qualitatively and quantificationally, and lays solidfoundations for the mechanism research.Chapter4: on the foundation of the diving force analysis, employs Pearsoncorrelation analytical method to investigate the driving mechanism of the change ofurban land scale, establishes spacial Logistic model to analyze the driving mechanism of the spacial expansion of urban land.Chapter5: under the guide of intensive land use, sets the high and low intensity ofurban land use in Wuhu, then establishes the forecasting model and uses the existingspacial Logistic model to obtain the simulation and prediction of urban land layout indifferent conditions.Chapter6: summarizes the main conclusions of the research and discusses theexisting deficiencies.