The Analysis Of Supply And Demand Of International Ship Market

Based on the consideration of the geographical factors and transportation cost, in present, the international trade transportation way of countries all over the world was finished through sea transport. In recent years, with the enhancement of the economic globalization the volume of international trade is stabilized and risen. The increase of demand of international freight transportation promoted the international shipping market greatly, and provided a fast-developing opportunity for the market. But in the course of flourishing development, because its periodic rule of development and influence of the external factors, the shipping market will present the stages of the climax and low ebb too. The purpose of this article is to do some ration and qualitative analysis about the development and changing law and the interaction of every influence factors of the international shipping market and the sea transportation market which is closely linked with the international shipping market. The results that comes from the analysis can be used for a good estimation of the international shipping and international ocean shipping market which can help our shipping enterprises make strategic which suit enterprise's one's own development.The article researched the characteristic and current situation of the new boat market, the second-hand boat market and the ship-breaking market respectively in the international boat market. And it analyzed various aspects which can impact the price of the new boat market, the second-hand boat market and the boat-breaking market and the pricing principle. According to the result of the analysis, it find out the index which represent various influencing factors that can be quantilized. After the supply and demand mathematical model on international boat market and international shipping market built up respectively, the paper built a econometric model to combine the two markets together according to the supply and demand principle in economics. At last the article verified the model via a group of data from the dry bulk shipping market.In the real diagnosis part, this article uses the vector from the regression model to verify if the models above are correct. In this progress it did some selection and adjust based on the real situation of the international dry bulk shipping market and the data getting ability. The article selected 7 and 8 important factors respectively in the dry bulk boat market and the dry bulk shipping market, and did regression analysis after linearized the selected data. Through the estimate of the equations of the supply and demand of dry bulk shipping, shipping scale, time charter rates, shipping idle, boat-breaking, new boat booking and new boat delivery amount, the result shows that the parameter estimation has good Significant in total , good variable Significant and good regression fitting. With the avoid of multicollinearity at the beginning, the whole model give out the reasonable explanation in economics. With the building of the whole regression economic model of the boat market and shipping market, we got the relationship between factors.