Study On The China's Iron Ore Import Shipping Market And Ship-type Selection

Since 21st century,the steel industry of China has been developing rapidly,crude steel production increased from 128 million tons in 2000 to 499 million tons in 2008, annual increasement is 45.12%,the proportion of the world steel production is up to 36.38%from 15.18%.Iron ore as the indispensable raw materials of steel industry,the demestic production is not enough,so it is an inevitable choice to import a certain number of iron ore from international market to meet the needs of steel industry development.Since 2000,the iron ore import volume increased greatly by the growth rate of 25%,the proportion of iron ore import volume by globle trade volume rose from 15.62%in 2000 to 48.73%in 2007,nearly up to half,which make china become the largest iron ore importing country.The large quantity of china's iron ore importing recent years gives a strong impute to the shipping tariff of the international shipping market.The BDI index is up to 11793 pionts in 20^th April 2008,which is a record point.Iron ore freight from Brazil to China reached 109 dollar/ton,but the long association iron ore prices only around 80 dollar/ton. COSCO's Cape ship named HUANG SHAN(175,775 dwt),route is Brazil to China,its charter rate upto 180,000 dollar/day.On the standpoint of the shipping company,how to choose reasonable tonnage ship on adaptive routes become a hot topic which dry bulk transportation company concerns.This paper analysises the international iron ore transportation market and mainly researches the condition of the iron ore transportation and iron ore import port of China, and studies the issues deeply based on the analysis of the international iron ore transportation market.This paper forecasts the iron ore import volume of our country based on BP Neural network with Binary regression prediction and the method of their combination forecasting method,and quantitative analysis the selection of ship-type in transporting the iron ore import.