Research On The Fluctuation And Forecasting Of International Dry Bulk Shipping Market Cycle Based On Wavelet Theory

The same as other modes of transportation, Shipping is as a derived demand. It derivates from economic development and serves for international trade. So the shipping industry is closely related to the development of world economy. As an important part of the international shipping market, the international dry bulk shipping market is a fully competitive market. Because it has many types of goods, and the various production of goods, different modes of transportation of which have effects on it. Also it was affected by the world political and economic environment, the level of economically developed countries and industrial characteristics and other factors. In recent years, dry bulk freight index has always been at the sharp fluctuations. Due to the global market more closely connected, the market is very sensitive to unexpected events. To the market operators this has brought about tremendous opportunities but also huge risks. However, the international dry bulk shipping market's volatility is not free to follow the law but is a certain cyclical.This paper first analyzes the international dry bulk shipping market's structure and morphology, and point out the cycle fluctuations characteristic of international dry bulk shipping market and the cycle theory. Then makes the introduction of the Baltic Freight Index, and make list of the method of calculating it. And meantime pointed out that the impact of factors. Third, paper made a brief introduction of the theory of wavelet analysis. And make an initial instruction on the single-variable model of wavelet. Fourth, paper firstly analyzes the characteristics of wavelet analysis and the applicability in this study. In accordance with the selected data, this paper drew wavelet amplitude map and the contour map of wavelet coefficients. Through the two above papers made an analysis on the cycle fluctuations of the international dry bulk shipping market by wavelet analysis and meantime identify cycles. Fifth, on the basis of the wavelet analysis, paper made a BDI index forecast through single-variable model of the wavelet. Then it was compared with the results forecasted by using only ARMA model. At last, the conclusions were drawn in this article.