Forecasting Methods Of Egg Products Logistics

Egg products are important strategic commodities for the people's livelihood. Doing a good job in the logistics organization of eggs are of great significance for buying and selling eggs for the market to adapting to the new situation, and improving the industrial chain of egg products to ensuring national security eggs. Meet the development requirements of both the development consistent with the actual needs of the egg product logistics planning, has now become important issues need to be addressed urgently.This article talks mainly from the perspective of egg production on the scale of our eggs logistics demand forecasting, analysis of trends in logistics demand, so as to effectively carry out the logistics organization of egg products. Considering the production are influenced by many factors, and many factors can not be quantified, therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of forecasts, we establish the non-linear combination forecast model in the application of the second exponential smoothing forecasting methods, Gray GM (1,1) prediction method and BP neural network prediction method, and this method has been applied to 10 provinces and cities nationwide, reaching a satisfactory result. According to different regions of production and consumption of poultry products comparison, we can see many areas have small size of egg production and management, their logistics organizational model more suitable for development "island model." However, from the long-term development, egg industry must be areas specialization and scale production, so the future organizational model eggs logistics can learn from the "mainland model."...