Empirical Research On Performance Persistence Of China's Open Fund

Recently,with the rapid development of the open fund market, to invest open funds has becoming one of the most important channels to manage money.But most decisions about how to invest and how to choose funds is based on the former performances.Most investors believe the hypothesis,the former performance of the funds could predict the next.It means that they believe open fund has performance persistence.This paper select 92 open funds which is establishment before 2005 as the samples,including 58 equity funds,22 balance fund,12 bond fund.Through empirical analysis,conclusions of the paper is as follows:1.The fund as a whole,to a certain time period,if the stock market is to maintain the same travel direction,fund performance persistence is more obvious.But if the stock market reversal in the direction,fund performance persistence also sustained reversal,for the negative persistence.2.For the sub-category on the performance persistence of the fund,bond funds is the best,balance fund is followed by bond funds,equity fund performance persistence is sustained the worst.3.For the time window of the length of the impact of performance persistence, the equity fund,quarter to quarter and year to quarter,is the strongest;the balance fund,quarter to quarter,two years to quarter and two years to six months,is the strongest;the bond fund,quarter to quarter,six months to quarter and one year to one year,is the strongest.4.The good performance of one fund is continuing a number of reasons,the study and investment overall level of fund management companies,the fund manager's personal capacity,and even the rapid expansion of asset size,all of them is affect factor,but is not the fundamental factors.The performance of fund is more variability, a fund to maintain good long-term performance is extremely rare.