Dynamic CGE Analysis On The Change Of RMB Exchange Rates

Exchange rate is a country to take part in international economic activities, an important integrated indicator. Changes in currency exchange rates will directly affect a country's trade balance,the development of related industries, and macro-economic growth. This has been the political and academic concerned. In recent years, With China's rapid economic development and the deepening of global economic continues to in-depth. The issue of RMB exchange rate has become the hotspot of international concern, and there is considerable widespread controversy. The parties to the bone of contention are how much best rate suit for RMB appreciation. Gradually into the current world economic system in terms of China's economy, exchange rate movements on the impact of China's economy is a complex systematic project, It's need for a comprehensive analysis of research methods. Computational General Equilibrium, CGE models take Walrasian general equilibrium theory, from abstract theory into a computable form of the utility model. It with equations, variables and real data from economic systems .Modeling language used to replicate the reality of economic system, can be a comprehensive quantitative analysis of economic policy impact on the macro -economy. CGE model of general equilibrium framework to enable it to describe a number of markets and institutions interact in a particular policy can be estimated by changes in the direct and indirect effects, as well as the overall impact on the overall economic system. Therefore, use this model to study is a reasonable choice. This paper will be based on the reality of China's economic development background, consider a study has been set in the model, methods choice problems, try to use dynamic CGE model to analyze of RMB appreciation on China's economic shocks.The full text is researched on CGE model of the basic theory and on this basis to construction of a model MCHUGE to analyze the revaluation of the RMB will affect China's economic life. In the fourth chapter using the equilibrium exchange rate model of Edwards, fitting out the RMB since 1981 to 2006 the level of the equilibrium exchange rate, combination of extrapolation to estimate the trend in 2007 to 2012 RMB equilibrium exchange rate and the pressure of RMB appreciation. The fifth Chapter designed five different exchange-rate appreciation of the radical scene, and then use the MCHUGE model from the macro-economic, industrial sector, import and export trade of the three levels after the RMB appreciation impact China's economy simulation, as well as five different from a comparative analysis of the scene.In this article, the innovation lies in the fact that tried to Edwards model, fitting the RMB since 1981 to 2006 the level of the equilibrium exchange rate, combined with estimates of the trend extrapolation method in 2007 to 2012 RMB equilibrium exchange rate and the pressure of RMB appreciation; On this basis, the MCHUGE model simulation from 2007 to 2012 the Chinese government to adopt a progressive year-on-year impact of RMB appreciation on China's industry after the economic changes. According to the current RMB appreciation on the different arguments, select five radical different selected five different exchange-rate appreciations of the radical scenarios for simulation research and comparative analysis.