Research On Modeling And Simulation Of Independent Innovation Ecosystem For Automobile Manufacturing

Independent innovation for automobile manufacturing is the basic power source and organizational carrier of Chinese automobile manufacturing. The growth of Chinese automobile manufacturing not only has economic significance, but also has national security significance and political significance.There are a lot of cooperations and competitions between automobile manufacturers during innovating. These cooperations and competitions constitute a huge innovation ecosystem. Cooperations and competitions have great influence for automobile manufacturers, so it is necessary to do some research on independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing on the view of cooperation and competition.This thesis first overview the research status of independent innovation of automobile manufacturing and introduced the ecology theory into the system. Define independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing and generalize its characteristics. Three components of independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing were analyzed and then analysed the impact of competition and environment to innovation. Analyse the competitive relationship in the independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing in competition condition with the game theory, and research on the choice of the innovation strategy. Educed the innovation strategy under complete information condition and uncomplete information condition and found the optimal strategy. Carried on the modeling and simulation of independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing based on Multi-agent based simulation. Compared the four models and gained the overall optimal innovation strategy.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly, analyse the system from the perspective of cooperation. Symbiosis theory was introduced into independent innovation for automobile manufacturing. Three components of independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing were analyzed: symbiosis units include automobile manufacturers and the scientific research institutions including universities; symbiosis entironment include society economy background, national policies, region economic characteristic and consumer demand; symbiosis mode include competition and cooperation. Three periods of the development process was mentioned at the angle of symbiosis view. The higher focus degree is, the closer the sysbiosis relation is. The sysbiosis relations are closer by the sales channels hiberarchy reduced, innformation technology and the conformity of service resource.Secondly, analyse the system from the perspective of competition. There are game between the priority innovation and the imitational innovation of automobile manufacturers. The imitational innovation can gain the max profit if he innovate immediately when the priority innovation appeared. Educed the profit and the equilibrium point of profit of the automobile manufacturers under complete information condition and uncomplete information condition. Analyse the choice of the automobile manufacturers under complete information condition and uncomplete information condition with the game theory and found out the optimal strategy of the game.The resources of complexity of independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing are as follows: innovation initiative of the agent; complexity of the technology; complexity of the innovation environment; complexity of knowledge economics; multi-hiberarchy of innovation; complexity of the innovation organization; whole process of innovation. Build the model frame of independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing based on Multi-agent based modeling and simulation, analyse the logic structure, basic qualification of the model and the particular process of the simulation. Simulated the model with a simulation software, Swarm. Build four kinds of models to simulate the system The conclusions of the simulation are as follows:①Only independent innovation can got the most upgrade of the innovation agent's level of average technology, but is the worst at the point of the whole system. The whole profit is low, the rate of success is low, the rate of death is high.②Only cooperation innovation can't gain the optimization because the whole level of technology is related on the individual level of technology.③Choose cooperation innovation or independent innovation randomly can't gather the advantage of them. It can't be chosen.④The best way is choosing cooperation innovation or independent innovation reasonably. Innovation agents judge the copartner before cooperation by two facts. Firstly, they can complement each other in technology. Secondly, they can gain more from cooperation innovation than independent innovation. Then, they can cooperate with each other. The innovation of this thesis lies in the research on independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing on the view of cooperation and competition with symbiosis and game theory. Analysed the impact of competition and symbiosis environment on symbiosis. Gained the optimal innovation strategy of automobile manufacturers under complete information condition and uncomplete information condition with the game theory. Build the model frame of independent innovation ecosystem for automobile manufacturing based on Multi-agent based modeling and simulation, and build four kinds of models to simulate the system with Swarm. Compared the four models and got the optimal strategy. This thesis has significant meaning in the innovation strategy choosing for automobile manufacturers.