Dynamic Analysis In The Impact Factors Of Domestic Demand Growth

The current Wall Street turmoil triggered by the U.S.financial crisis is a global crisis, no country is an island,but now in terms of our country's economic situation is good. China is currently in industrialization and urbanization accelerate development stage, and having great demand for investment,domestic consumption continued to grow great potential,it could make up the impact of the slowdown in exports.However, even though we have proposed the policy of expanding domestic demand since the Asian financial crisis in 1998,but the investment "control and weight reduction",the consumer,"start and sluggish." Therefore it is necessary for the depth study of the influencing factors of domestic demand growth.In this paper,on the basis of the analysis of a large number of domestic and foreign literature,separately from the impact factors of the constituent elements of domestic demand,consumer demand and investment demand,this paper summarized 13 impact variables of the domestic demand,and did factor analysis according to the 13 variables' data of our country in 1979 -2008 and obtained 4 factor variables who can reflect the vast majority information of the 13 variables,then made a SVAR model based on the 4 factors and domestic demand growth variable,and found that the key to expanding domestic demand is to expand the amount of equity financing and consumption by the impulse response function and variance decomposition in the model.That is the key to stimulating domestic demand is the capital market and consumption,and made a number of policy recommendations from the capital market and promoting the consumption at last.Innovation of this paper is:First,a more comprehensive consideration of a variety of impact factors of domestic demand growth;second,the use of factor analysis and structural vector autoregressive(SVAR) method in the study on the impact factors of the domestic demand growth.Not only consider the interaction of various factors, give the dynamics path of domestic demand growth based on the various factors,but also identified the key impact factors of domestic demand growth.