The Study On The Influence Of Productive Factor Flow On The Potential Economic Growth Rate In Northwest China

Most of the Northwest China is located in the highland mountainous areas,with poor traffic,fragile ecological environment,backward technical level and relatively low level of economic development.From the point of view of the growth rate of GDP,The growth rate of GDP in Northwest China declined by an average of 1.14 percentage points from 2011 to 2015.According to the economic growth theory,the real economic growth rate will fluctuate around the potential economic growth rate,so is the decline of the real economic growth rate caused by the decline of the potential economic growth rate? What are the factors that affect the potential economic growth rate? According to the analysis of production function method,the potential economic growth comes from three parts: total factor productivity growth rate,capital growth rate and labor force growth rate,and the mobility of capital and labor force affects the accumulation of these two factors of production.This directly affects the potential economic growth rate in the region.Therefore,this paper will verify whether the decline of the actual economic growth rate in Northwest China is caused by the potential economic growth rate,and analyze the influencing factors of the potential economic growth rate of Northwest China from the perspective of capital and labor force.This paper first discusses the impact of capital and labor mobility on the potential economic growth rate from both direct and indirect aspects,and then selects the relevant data from 1990 to 2015 in five northwest provinces for empirical research.The main research contents are as follows: estimating the net capital and labor flow scale of the five provinces and regions in Northwest China,and using the time-varying elastic production function method to calculate the potential economic growth rate in the Northwest region.A vector autoregressive model isbuilt to analyze the effect of production factor flow on the potential economic growth rate in Northwest China.The results show that the net inflow of capital and labor force has a positive impact on the potential economic growth rate,and the net outflow has a negative impact on the potential economic growth rate.For every100 million yuan of capital inflow,the potential economic growth rate will increase by 0.0214 percentage points.For every 10,000 people entering labor force,the potential economic growth rate will increase by 0.2098 percentage points.At the same time,the impact of capital and labor mobility on the potential economic growth rate is also lagging behind.The impact of capital flows in the first and second phases on the potential economic growth rate is 0.0168 and 0.0081 percentage points,respectively.The effects of labour mobility were-0.0167 and0.2795 percentage points,respectively.It can be seen that in recent years,the sustained outflow of capital and labor force in the Northwest region to a certain extent reduced the potential economic growth rate in the Northwest region.Therefore,in the end of this paper,from the perspective of factor of production flow,some suggestions are put forward to improve the potential economic growth rate in Northwest China.