An Empirical Analysis Of Exchange Rate Pass-through On Export Price

With deep development of globalization, exchange rate become a key variable for economy development of a country. Especially under floated exchange rate system, the fluctuation of exchange rate has a deep impact on import and export of a country. Exchange rate pass through Effect could reflect the development trend of change of exchange rate under current import and export structure.For issue of Exchange rate pass through effect, the paper use Japan and China are both countries which strong depend on export as specific cases, to analyses the relationship between export price index and effective exchange rate of both countries by empirical comparable study of Cointegration and vector error correction model. The detailed progress of this paper are as follows: Part one will elicit the topic, and systematic summarize the research status for exchange rate pass-through among Scholars at home and abroad, meanwhile, analyze the advantage and disadvantage of this paper's research. Part two demonstrates the empirical model to be deduced theoretically. Part three is empirical research process for exchange rate pass-through on export price's coefficient of Japanese Yen. Part four is empirical research process for exchange rate pass-through on export price's coefficient of Chinese Renminbi. Part five is Comparative Study between Japanese Yen exchange rate pass-through on Export Price and Chinese Renminbi exchange rate pass-through on Export Price. Part six is brief summary and policy recommendationThrough systematic research, this paper concludes: (1) Japanese Yen exchange rate pass-through on export price's coefficient in rapid appreciation period is no higher than that of Chinese RMB in current appreciate period. (2) Appreciate of Japanese Yen could promote to upgrade Japanese export industries, but it may not have the same result for Chinese Renminbi appreciation. (3) Appreciation of Japanese Yen is not the direct cause of "Japan Lost Ten Years" in nineties of the last century, more reason is the failure caused by Japan's of deficit fiscal policy...