Study On The Transmission Mechanism Of Housing Price In China Monetary Policy

Conduction mechanism of monetary policy has been a focus of academic attention problems,with the rapid development of China's capital market,asset prices have become important factors influencing the effect of monetary policy.Neither academia nor the monetary policy makers are increasingly concerned about asset price volatility on the effect of monetary policy transmission.The past more than 10 years,the real estate market has experienced rapid development and adjustment stages,the effects of monetary policy has become increasingly prominent,and the real estate market also provides a new way for monetary policy transmission and act on the real economy.Explore the real estate market's role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy,regulation of monetary authorities to determine monetary policy in macroeconomic and interventions helps the effectiveness of monetary policy makers to use monetary policy tools,maintain macroeconomic stability,healthy and orderly development.So,paper of main purpose is combined economic theory and monthly economic data of empirical analysis to inquiry the role of real estate market in currency policy conduction process,in order to improve China real estate market health stable of development.This paper is divided into five parts.The first part is an introduction.The second part is a review of the literature.Part III establishment of real estate markets as the carrier in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.Part four and five in the theory based on the model of the structural vector autoregressive models(SVAR)and pulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis,from the perspective of dynamic relationships between economic variables revealed the price transmission mechanism of monetary policy.Articles in the sixth part of the empirical results were summarized,and give some suggestions.After the analysis on the background,I summarized related research of the scholars at home and abroad,from the effect of monetary policy on prices and house prices on consumption,investment and the impact of price level.From the findings of previous literature,although because of the time,differences of the variables selected,the conclusion is quite different.These research methods and ideas have helped me a lot,based on the background of China's actual economic situation,research on the real estate market's role in the monetary policy transmission mechanism indicates the direction.Secondly,based on the theoretical analysis of the effects of monetary policy are discussed in detail the real estate price real estate price fluctuation and macroeconomic transmission channels,and the establishment of stage analysis of the price transmission channels,and establishment of a two-stage analysis of the price transmission mechanism of monetary policy framework.The first stage,primarily through the interest rate channel of monetary policy,credit and money supply in the three major ways to make impacts on real estate prices.The second phase,the real estate price fluctuations have an impact on consumption through the wealth effect,home balance sheet;and have an impact on investment through direct investment effects,Tobin's Q effects and corporate balance sheets.Through these channels,effects of aggregate demand and supply would affect price levels and economic output.Then,in the empirical analysis,this paper using ADF test,Cointegration,SVAR models,impulse response and variance decomposition method to analysis the price transmission mechanism of monetary policy.Judging by the results from the empirical analysis of monetary policy conduction in the real estate market,some channels are effective,some channels are not very clear.In the process of transmission of monetary policy tools to price the Bank's role is clear,especially the credit channel and monetary supply pathway is very obvious.Which,Bank of currency supply volume on prices has significantly effect,bank credit scale on prices also has obviously effect,but Shi delay compared long,although interest rate on prices also has negative,but conduction efficiency lower;in entity economic level,prices changes on investment of effect significantly for are,but has must of lag period,on consumption of effect obviously for negative,description prices of investment effect is greater than consumption effect,description Tobin'Q effect than family wealth effect more significantly.Prices and price effects on economic growth although there is a lag,but the positive effect is more noticeable.Finally,this paper summarizes the conclusions of empirical analysis and price problems in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy put forward a few suggestions.One is to speed up the process of interest rate marketization,and second,strengthening the regulation of the money supply,third,perfect the social security system,promote domestic demand growth,four is to ensure the continuity and transparency of monetary policy.Paper combined predecessors of research results,from China actual conditions starting,in analysis currency policy conduction to real estate market of process in the,focused on currency supply volume channel of conduction logic,on variable of filter Shang,paper covers to real estate market for carrier of currency policy conduction of two stage,from four a dimension degrees for variable selected,respectively is currency policy tool level,and real estate market level,and entity economic level and currency policy target level,altogether selected eight a variable for analysis.These are innovations of this article.