Study On The Formation Mechanism Of Soybean Futures Price

The domestic futures market has changed greatly in recent years, which as the improving of our country's market economic system and needing for risk management after entering the WTO, and many news kinds of agriculture futures have occurred in the market, such as corn, soybean, cotton and sugar. Futures market becomes an important system to protect agricultural sustainable development, and it plays an very important role in economy system, it affects many aspects, such as restructuring in agriculture, the connection of food production and marketing, improving the competitiveness of agriculture-related enterprises and the pricing right for international agricultural products. Meanwhile, the further theoretical innovation for futures market is needed as the fast developing of the practice. Futures price is the most important element in futures exchanging system, and also the general reflecting for the futures market operation. The forming and changing of the futures price lead to some functions, such as the price discovery, hedging, and so on. Through studying the inherent rules of the futures price's forming and changing, then, revealing and expanding the function of the futures market, which is a study route for scholars at home and abroad. Based on this fact, we establish the forming of agricultural products futures price to be this research project and study it from the eyes of finance, on which we want to recognize and reveal inherent rules of price forming and changing of agricultural products futures in order to serve the domestic futures market of agriculture products. Base on this fact, we establish the formation mechanism of soybean futures price and senses in Dalian Commodity Exchange to be this research project.From the theory of behavioral finance, this article explains that the formation of soybean futures prices and stock market fluctuation, in addition to basic factors of stock market, are also influenced by the investor himself which plays a crucial role in impacting on the formation of commodity futures prices and fluctuation. This article researchs from related theories, and makes a brief introduction for soybean futures market, expounds the formation mechanism of soybean futures market and main factors influncing the formation of soybean futures prices to study the assets pricing pattern of soybean futures market. We analyse the behaviors and cognitive biases of investor in Dalian Commodity Exchange thoroughly positively analysis and case analysis to get related revelation with behavior finance theory. The last is a summary of research results and insufficiencies and related suggestions.The results of positive analysis and case analysis show that soybean futures market is a derivative which dominants by natural effects and the formation of agricultural futures price is determined by investors that are an important effect on the formation and changes of futures prices of agricultural products because of the investors' behaviors and cognitive biases. Because of a wide range of the existence of cognitive biases; it causes the formation of commodity futures prices and fluctuation to be very complex and difficult to understand. Through the analysis of this issue, for the government regulators, futures investors and peasants, properly use the modern agricultural futures market's competition, risk and information tools that provide some useful insights to make the development of Chinese agricultural futures market healthy and steady.