The Price Relationship Between Soybean Futures And Soybean Meal Futures

China is a large agricultural country with agriculture as its main development area.Agricultural development reflects the economic development of China to a considerable extent.Soybean and soybean meal,which are the top agricultural products in China,are widely used in many fields such as planting,animal husbandry and product processing.In the early nineteenth century,the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was established and was the world's first agricultural futures trading center.Over the years,as China's crop futures market has gradually formed,the state has paid more and more attention to the improvement of the futures market,and issued a number of policies to demonstrate the importance of the futures market.The State Council's "Promoting Inclusive Financial Development Plan(2016-2020)" issued on December 31,2015 pointed out the importance of the existence of the futures market,and proposed to expand the scale of the futures market and the types of goods,and expand the services of the entire market.range.The central document promulgated in 2018 also proposed to further strengthen the establishment of the agricultural futures options market.Although the financial derivatives market is a high-risk market,at the same time,it is accompanied by higher returns.More and more financial investors have discovered the development potential of the agricultural futures market and turned to invest in the agricultural futures investment market.Investors buy and sell futures contracts for speculation through the prediction of the future trend of commodity prices,and get retuoms from them.Investors can not only use the futures market to hedge their hedging to avoid risks,but also arbitrage to make profits.More and more scholars have begun to study the price-oriented relationship between futures market function,futures market and spot market,but there are few studies on the correlation between different futures commodity prices,and soybean futures and soybean oil futures,corn futures and starch Futures are more research papers,and data selection is even earlier.Based on the predecessors,this paper updates the data and research objects,and explores the correlation between the futures contract price of soybeans and soybean meal in the futures market.The Dalian Commodity Exchange Soybean Futures(Yellow Soy 1)is selected in the Wind database.,Huang Soy No.2 is the soybean futures sample data)and the daily closing price of the soybean meal futures contract.The software is used to study the data,using commonly used empirical test methods,including cointegration test,Granger causality test,establishment The vector error correction model was analyzed by impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.The time nodes of the study were from January 2013 to December 2017.Analyze and study the correlation between soybean futures prices and soybean meal futures prices in China.The empirical test results show that the price of soybean futures and soybean meal futures has been in a balanced state for a long time,and will deviate in the short term,but it can eventually be corrected.Therefore,there is a certain arbitrage opportunity between the futures of soybeans No.1 and No.2 and soybean meal futures;on the other hand,the price of soybean meal futures on the soybean futures market is one-way conduction,and that there is a close upstream and downstream between the two.Relationships,which also provide evidence for cross-commodity arbitrage between the two futures products.From a Policy point of view,China's futures market is still in the initial stage of development.In addition to the regulation of the market itself,the government should also conduct macro-monitoring.China needs to actively develop and improve the overall system of China's futures market and accelerate the development of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers".Accelerate the integration with the international economy,so that China's futures market will further advance in terms of overall scale and development,making the futures market more effective.