| Behavior of investors is also the result of the interaction of action body and environment. But for the systematic research on investors'behavior and its pervasion, to realize it by doing real investment experiment, the time and money costs are very huge, and it's difficult to achieve.Investors are the principle part in the stock market, their behavior is the result of the interaction of action body and environment ,their decisions are based on the information which they gain, and they also assume the lucre or the dignify .The investors'most important factor is decision . In the process of the decision ,they will reflect their information which they gained or their anticipation on the foreground about economics to their invest behavior. On some senses , their invest behaviors affect the efficiency of the stock market.. and the process that environment stimulate and wake up the demand motivation and behavior body that underlies in human to exert initiative, which is also be the combined effect of external and internal factors results.Fisrt,this paper studies the pervasion of stock market inventors'behavior by establishing cellular automation model. The cellular Automata was brought forward in the last early 50th century by Von Neuman, who simulated biological reproduction on computer .This model is a meshwork kinetics model , it is dispersed on practice , space ,state , and it is local on the reciprocity of space and the cause and effect of time. It has a high degree of dispersion, and the synchronization state of evolution and interaction of localized cellular characteristics such as cellular automata, therefore has been widely used in various fields of study, and especially come to be mature in geographic information system. Although the cellular automaton has been widely used in economics, it is not very mature; especially for the application in the securities market and investors'behavior stimulation are still at the initial stage. Securities market is an open market, the factors that affect the stock price are complex, in which group psychological of investors play an important role , than in other economic areas, the proliferation of investment securities tend to have a group of investors, and a collection of high power or cohesion, and sometimes can influence the trend of the stock market plays a very strong expansion and amplification.Second, this article introduced the cellular automata and investor psychology and the analysis of investment behavior, which is the theoretical basis for this paper. This article holds that the real behavior of investors by the decision makers in addition to the historical background and social environmental impact, but also by many other factors, such as investors behavior deviation, investors and other cognitive deviation and herd instinct, which are described in this article and analysis.Third, the paper builds securities investors'behavior pervasion model that based on CA. In this paper, the stock market investors will be divided into four types: the basic traders, technical traders, moderate dealers, and conformity traders: the basic traders hold the idea that all information will be quickly reflected in price changes, the daily price action only related to the current information, and has nothing to do with the previous price. Technical traders predict the stock price movement at certain time in the future by observing the past stock price movement statement, just like weather forecasting. However the technical analysis can not accurately forecast the trend of stock prices. But the technical method did help technical traders to predict the price might be appear in the future, accordingly to see the stock marketing station and quantity. Compared with the basic traders and technical traders, the moderate traders are lack of basic analysis and technical capability. On the one side, their transactions are affected by the investment behavior of other people around them; on the other hand, their transactions are influenced by their own investment psychology. The followed traders have not enough confidence, they usually followed by others actions and suggestions, and always followed others advice when they making investment decision. Thereby, it could be concluding that the investment decision of followed traders is influenced by their neighbors. Basic traders, technical traders, moderate traders and followed traders, they have different condition to buy and sell stock in securities market. Through researching the behavior of them and settling relevant rules, accordingly to obtain the investment behavior model of investor in securities market.Fourth, this paper uses CA Model to draft a chart of investors'investment behavior time trend in securities market, which compared with the 300 stock exponents in Shanghai & Shenzhen Stock markets. Through analysis, we can see that the wave congregate character has high relationship with the proportion of the moderate dealers and the conformity traders in stock market. The higher proportion, the more instability in stock market, and the more spread of the investment behavior.Last, this paper elicits the basic and technical investors play the role of leadership in the stock market. The paper contrapuntally put forward some suggestions on the stock market of China: 1) Develop some effective education work amongst investors to strengthen the study on pervasion of investment behavior, in order to reduce the investor's dependence of investment behavior of others. 2)improve the proportion of the institute investors ,the main purpose is to improve the proportion of the institution investor in our stock market . 3) Ameliorate the system of information exposure.The use of cellular automation acts on the proliferation of securities for investors to invest in research is an innovation of investment way, its economy and reliability, making it widely used; this is the greatest contribution of this paper. But this article still has many deficiencies that will improve and consummate in the farther research. |
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