The Quantitative Research Of The Influences Of Investors' Psychologics On The Petroleum Futures Price

As the "blood" of the modern industrial economy, the petroleum price has great influence on the stability and development of the global economy. So, it has important theoretical and realistic significance to study the factors which significantly affect the fluctuation of the petroleum price. This paper tries to research the psychological fators that impact the petroleum futures price. Basing on some principles, the paper selectes four psychologies- representative heuristics, overconfidence, anchoring, and herd behavior-as research objects, and divides four sections to study the influences of these four psychologies of investors on the petroleum futures price.The main contents of the paper are as follow:in the first section, using the corresponding relation and grey interconnect degree to check the representative heuristic psychology in the international petroleum futures market. At the same time, overreaction behavior, which is tightly connected with the representative heuristic psychology, is also verisfied by the way of the events study in this part; In the second and third sections, on the basis of the characteristics of the overconfidence and anchoring psychologies, the paper firstly establishes two mathematic models of these two psychologies influencing on the petroleum futures market, then employes the way of computer simulation to verify the conclusions deriving from these models, and lastly applies the evolution game model to analyse the long-term influence of these two psychologies in the petroleum futures market; In the fourth section, the paper integrates the two mathematic models above. Through combining with the herd behabior psychology, the paper finally sets up a noise-evolution-game model which containes the overconfidence, anchoring and herd behavior psychologies.According to analyzing, the main conclusions the paper acquires are as follow:(1) There is no obvious representative heuristic psychology toward similar events in the petroleum futures market, but existes overreaction behavior.(2) The overconfidence will result in more trade volume of the investors who contain overconfidence psychology in the petroleum futures market, influence the trend of the mean of the petroleum equilibrium futures price, and weaken the fluctuation of the futures price caused by noise traders. Moreover, the overconfidence psychology can exist long in the futures market under most situations. (3) If the information the investors gain existes positive or negative deviation, the anchoring psychology will affect the direction of investors'trading position. The influences of anchoring psychology on the petroleum futures price in the short and long run depend on several factors such as the magnitude and direction of investors'information deviation.(4) If investors who contain herd behavior psychology exist in the petroleum futures market, and they are scattered uniformly in the whole investors, then the herd behavior will not influence the state of the long-term equilibrium, but will delay the long-term equilibrium process in the petroleum futures market.