Based On The Heterogeneous Investors Irrational Psychological Gold Futures Studies

Gold has commodity property, and good currency property and financial properties of gold, three attributes determine the gold futures is not only a kind of commodity, is also a kind of financial futures. In recent years, the price of gold rose strongly, to 2011 September the price of gold reached so far the highest price 1895 U.S. dollars/ounce, formation of unilateralism form. As the international price of gold rose, governments of the gold market to pay attention to improve. Due to the Chinese government on the futures market steady development of our country seriously, the practice and the theory on the gold market attention also gradually improve.Many factors influence gold price, gold producers and investors are difficult to accurately predict the future price movements. The effects of various factors on the gold price has important significance. Which psychological factors can not be ignored influence factors. In the gold market, gold futures to occupy the position to play a decisive role, the price of gold has found the function, and the futures market is the psychological factors play a direct role in places, so this paper studies the overconfidence effect on the price of gold futures.In order to analyze, this paper divided the traders of gold futures market into two kinds:the Speculators and Arbitrageurs, and then construct a market equilibrium model about future pricing to analyze the behavior of the two kind traders with overconfidence and anchoring. After getting the decision-making function, the market equilibrium future price will be attained at the conditions of market clearing. Then analyze how the overconfidence and anchoring impact on future price, volatility of the price of gold futures and the effects on individual utility. The conclusions we got are more close to the reality. Finally, we valuated the method of simulation.