| The default risk of residential mortgage loan is one kind of credit risks of commercial banks, which is also a new risk that commercial banks face in recent years. The accumulation of default risk of residential mortgage loan will influence asset quality and healthy development of commercial banks and bring severe test to their risk management.Starting from the study of status of real estate market and real estate finance in our country, this thesis investigate the development and default risks of residential mortgage loan of commercial banks, and analyze the reasons of it. On the base of comprehensive study of factors influencing default risks of residential mortgage loan, this thesis use mortgage loan sample data from a state-owned commercial bank to make an empirical study by applying factor and discriminant analysis. Based on empirical results,related theories and status analysis, the thesis gives four strategies on how to perfect the management of residential mortgage loan default risk.By empirical analysis, the thesis includes the magnitude and direction of every factor and their relative importance. The empirical results indicate that overdue times-housing price index is the most important factor influencing the default risks. In addition to this, lending rate, education level,month repayment income ratio are also important factors. Meanwhile, the study develop the discriminant function model and make a stationary test on the accuracy of it, finding that it has well predicting accuracy by comparing their predicting accuracies, and has practical value, and can offer commercial banks scientific foundation to distinguish which type of loan it belongs to. |
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