The Research And Empirical Analysis On Real Estate Development Investment Affecting Factors Of Xi'an City

The real estate has become the pillar industry of china's national economy. The real estate development investment plays an important role in driving economic growth. A careful analysis of the basic trend of the real estate investment and the establishment of effective macro-control policy on the real estate which is significant for sustained and healthy development of national economy and the real estate, therefore, this paper based on existing research results and the specific case of the real estate development investment in Xi'an identifies the main influential factors of the real estate development investment to establish bayesian averaging of classical estimates models and econometric models, and carry out quantitative analysis.The paper establishes the real estate development investment index system from the four levels of impact on the region's economic, industrial development, power consumption of citizen income and social factors. First, the paper obtain corresponding causality by means of analyzing Xi'an real estate development investment and a number of influential factors with the causal theory. Second, the paper ensure the main factors and its stability by calculating the probability of influencing factors with bayesian averaging of classical estimates. Finally, the paper choose the main influencing factors of real estate development investment in accordance with bayesian averaging of classical estimates and variable among a total of linear issues, and reveal specific relationship through cointegration and error correction model. The paper reach the conclusion:(1)social fixed investment and per capita GDP which represented the economic factors, real estate stock represented the development of Industry factors, per capita consumption expenditure of residents, per capita disposable income of residents and per capita savings deposit of urban and rural residents represented the consumption and income factors, and urbanization level represented social factors, all of this influence the real estate development investment in Xi'an City are affected to various degrees.(2)The paper selected social fixed investment, real estate stocks and residents per capita consumption expenditure as explanation variables, and establish error correction models and long-term equilibrium model carefully the various factors, not only Social fixed investment and real estate stocks are most noticeable,but also there exist Negative correlation between with them.