A Research Of The Relationship Between Natural Endowments And Economic Growth Based On The Bayesian Model Averaging Method

Relationship between natural endowments and economic growth is a classic topic in economic researches,and a highly controversial topic as well.Early researchers in this field mostly supported the viewpoint of resources advantage.However,the theory of "resource curse" became popular with the growth failure in most resource abundance countries in the second half of the 20th century.In the existing documents about "resource curse",researchers have not agreed on the existence of "resource curse",either its generation mechanism.However,there is no denying that exploring the real relationship between resources endowment and economic growth so that avoiding falling into the "resource curse" are of great importance for China.On this premise,the paper considered that the cause of the disagreements among the researchers is the uncertainties of models and variables,so the paper decided to adopt a Bayesian Model Averaging method(Bayesian Model Averaging,BMA)to retest the thesis on both international and domestic level.The paper found that the"resource curse" does not exist from both international and domestic level.At the same time,by dividing international the sample,the paper found that the countries with low institutional quality and high dependence on resource industry are easily to fall into "resource curse";the paper then broke up the domestic sample into west、east and middle regions and find that the western region are more likely to appear the phenomenon of "resource curse" due to the simple industry structure,manufacturing recession and insufficient human resources reserves.