| With the increasing amount of coal mining, problem of colliery safety accident has become more and more serious. China's coal mine death toll highest in the world. The cause of coal mine death is complex and interrelated. Although the occurrence of a single incident is random, it is subjected to statistical laws in a certain extent overall. This paper is designed to study the coal-mining accidents of our country and the accidents of a coal belongs to a certain group. The model of mortality in the millions of tons is constructed based on mathematical methods. Then, we can predict the future trend and the possible level to reach and provide scientific basis for preventing and reducing colliery safety accident rate. The contents of the thesis are as follows:(1) This paper introduces the status of colliery safety accident and analyses the future trend of china colliery safety accident deaths and millions of tons of mortality rates. Compared to foreign coal mining industry, the situation of our country is more serious.(2) All types of accidents are analyzed on the basis of statistical and fuzzy clustering analysis method of mathematical model is established based on fuzzy mathematics method and the theory of multivariate statistical for a certain group of coal-mining company. F statistic is uesd to determine the optimal classification in order to make scientific and rational classification of the group of coal-mining company.(3) With the national death toll in millions of tons from 1998 to 2007, the forecast models (including the gray prediction model, the regression model, the gray prediction and regression prediction model, the residuals Markov prediction model and the combination model of all) are constructed on the basis statistical analysis of mortality rate. The results of forecast are quite consistent with the actual rate and have more forecast credible. And a comparative analysis of various models is conducted to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each model. |
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