Logistics Demand Forecasting Method Combination Of Shandong Province And Its Application

Logistics is a basic and strategic industry supporting the national economy and social development. We are inseparable from the promotion of logistics industry, in particular, with the implementation of national strategies of “The Belt and Road Initiative” and the rise of online shopping market. The degree of development of the logistics industry is a measure of an important symbol of modernization and economic strength of a country and region, which has been hailed as the economic development of accelerators and "the third profit source". Logistics demand forecasting can provide decision-making basis for the government and enterprises to develop logistics planning and construction of logistics parks. Logistics demand forecasting is an important prerequisite for the development of third-party logistics enterprises, a reasonable allocation of logistics resources, improving the efficiency of logistics operations. Logistics demand is closely related to economic development, so which are affected by many factors. Paper establishes the index system of influence logistics demand by gray correlation analysis. Logistics demand forecasting method is very much, and each has the assumptions and conditions, therefore, select the logistics demand forecasting method is also crucial. Thesis using the combination forecasting method based on Shapley, its principle is to give a fair weighting according to the size of a single prediction error. This method combines the advantages of a single prediction method, and make up for their insufficient is verified by Shandong Province logistics demand forecast.The first chapter introduces the research background and significance, and then introduces domestic and foreign research status from a single prediction and combined forecast, briefly summarizes the main contents and technical route and points out the innovation. The second chapter introduces the concept of regional logistics demand characteristics, regional Logistics Demand Forecasting Method’s content features and steps, factors of Regional Logistics Demand and the establishment of quantitative indicators of regional logistics demand forecast. The third chapter introduces theory of the logistics demand forecasting methods, which includes multiple linear regression forecast, multivariable grey model prediction, PCA-RBFNN prediction and Shapley combination forecasting. The fourth chapter is empirical analysis in Shandong Province, first introduced logistics status, characteristics of Shandong Province, then verify the accuracy of combined model and three kinds of single forecasting model using the index data from 2005 to 2014 of Shandong Province, predicts the next six years freight turnover. Finally, the paper summarizes the main conclusions and outlook.