An Analysis Of China's Energy Consumption And Its Influencing Factors Based On Rough Set Theory

Firstly, energy consumption is chosen as the decision variable. Investment, final consumption, total export and heavy industry proportion are chosen as conditional variables. twenty-seven years (from 1981 to 2007) real data of energy consumption(influence of price level is deducted) in China are taken as samples. Based on the attribute degree, the attribute reduction and the rule confidence of the rough set theory, a phase analysis(respectively from 1981 to 1990, from 1986 to 1995, from 1991 to 2000, from 1996 to 2005, from 2001 to 2007) is made to reflect the dependent degree of energy consumption on the five variables. The model not only represents the equilibrium relation between energy consumption and its main influence factors, but also can show us the nearly 30 years changes of the influence degree between them. The analysis results of the model afford a new idea for policy making. Finally, A prediction model based on a related relation prediction method is established to predict the energy consumption.