| The relationship between transportation and city development is closely related. For the difference of the geography, history, culture and economy, each city has formed distinctive urban transportation system in the long process. As the capital of China for many years, Beijing had been specially planed to show its special politic status. With the obvious city sprawl in recent years, many traffic problems emerged and became worsen, such as traffic congestion, serious exhaust emission and horrible traffic accidents. In accord with the construction of the Harmonious Society, the Urban Harmonious Transportation is projected to solve the contradictions among modes of transportation, transportation infrastructure and transportation coordination. Then, it considers the interrelation between urban traffic and the economy development, eco-environment, natural resource, technology level and policy as well. Besides, the study specially emphasizes the importance of "people", and the active participation of people. As long as the whole system achieves excellent coupling with good service to people, the spillover effects would be realized. Based on the analysis of the urban traffic system, this paper drafts the main areas and theoretical framework of urban harmonious transportation, and makes the simulation of the future traffic possibilities by the method of system dynamics for Beijing. The model results give the trend of population, GDP, atmospheric environment and congestion situation, and influence caused by transportation system. |