The Research On The Relationship Between The Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation And The Regional Financial Stability Of Guangdong

With the deepening reform of China's housing system and continuously improvement of the financial system,the relationship between China's real estate market and financial market is becoming close.However,because China's market system is in the transition period, and the developments of the real estate market and financial market are not mature, the symbiotic relationship between the two easily lead to a prospering harmed situation. Over the years China's real estate industry has had a rapid development, but the healthy and perfect real estate finance system has not been established. Because of our long-term strict separation of different management and monitoring system, the financing capital of real estate industry raised through bank system is far more than bond, stock, trust investment and other indirect methods. The risk of real estate development excessively focus on banking system has become one of the potential risks on China's banking system and the whole financial system stability.In addition, because the real estate market, mainly due to the regulation of financial policies, China's real estate market, also known as the "policy market", the real estate cycle fluctuations and the tight or loose policy environment are closely related, how to use a reasonable monetary policy to adjust the real estate cycle fluctuation, is not only conducive to the stable development of the real estate market, but also conducive to the banking system and thus eliminate the potential risks of the financial system.This article takes Guangdong as an object of study,using the methods like vector error correction model and Granger causality test to study the relationship between the real estate cycle fluctuation and regional financial stability of Guangdong, and obtains the degree of influence and the lag. Since the close relationship between the two easily leads to risk, this paper puts forward in the relevant policy recommendations to slow the real estate cycle fluctuation and the maintenance of financial stability.