The Research Of Fictitious Economic Fluctuations On The Stability Of Commercial Banks

With the increasing degree of economic monetary, financial derivatives emerge in large numbers. Since the 20th 80s, many countries appeared excessive fluctuations of Fictitious economy, Fictitious economic volatility lead to instability in the financial system and eventually made some of them appeared bank crisis or financial crisis. At present, China is still in the financial system dominated of commercial banks, commercial banks are the core of our financial system, commercial banks open and develop are still in the initial stage, the financial crisis emergence and development is closely linked with the inevitable of commercial banks. So, reference international experience, attention to the inherent volatility of Fictitious economy, probe the impact of Fictitious economic fluctuations on the stability of commercial banks will have an important significance to the stable development of China's Fictitious economy and financial system stability and security.This paper uses theories of fictitious capital theory,monetary credit crisis theory,financial fragility theory and History of financial crisis and combines econometric methods of VAR model integration,Granger causality test and impulse and variance decomposition, the empirical analysis of Fictitious economic fluctuations on the stability of commercial banks shows that, in current financial environment, effect of Fictitious economic fluctuations on the stability of commercial banks is limited, but the impact mechanism between them have initially formed. With the deepening development of China's financial system, Fictitious economy size continues to expand, Fictitious economic fluctuations on the stability of Chinese commercial banks and even the financial system will inevitably become apparent. Therefore, this paper considers to avoid Fictitious economic fluctuations on the stability of commercial banks in several ways:maintain the healthy development of the real economy; promote the stable development of Fictitious economy; enhance the stability of commercial banks and risk identification monitoring; strengthen risk management and institutional innovation of commercial banks.