| The bankrupt of New Century Financial Corporation triggered subprime crisis in USA, which induced global financial crisis. Every industry has been affected by the crisis, equally to copper industry which is one of pillar industries in national economy. The influence of financial crisis is need to be researched, and this research has great significance to timely upgrading of Chinese copper industrial structure, adjustment of resources strategy, decision-making of industrial production and sustainable development of copper industry.Firstly, the reasons and transmission mechanics of financial crisis are theoretical analyzed in the paper, and on the basis of the research the influence of financial crisis to Chinese mining industry is thorough studied. In addition, by presenting the situation of copper resources and copper industry, this paper focus on analysis of the status of its supply and demand, influencing factors of price.Then, by selecting some typical indexes from virtual economy and real economy respectively, how does the financial crisis influence copper price of China has been empirical studied with the methods of econometric analysis. The main contents are as follow:1. Financial crisis models of spot price of Chinese copper have been established, and the direct impact on copper spot price in the crisis quantitative analyzed.2. The impact of London copper, the dollar index, commodity prices of oil and other virtual economy on copper spot price around the financial crisis is analyzed.3. The impact of import and export of refined copper, industrial production growth index, copper inventories in Shanghai Stock Exchange and other real economy on copper spot price before and after the financial crisis is analyzed.4. Dynamic econometrics models of copper futures prices are established. Then by statistical analysis, the relevancy of copper future prices between Shanghai and London are obtained with the theory of co-integration and causality. |
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