The Empirical Analysis Of "Chinese Factors" About The Price Trend Of Future Copper

Since 2003 , the copper prices have exercised a excellent rising not only in real exchange but also in future exchange . For an example, the future copper price in LME has come from 1600$ every ton to 4500$ every ton in the past three years . At the same time, the future copper price in SHFE has come from 17000 yuan every ton to 44000 yuan every ton . More and more people think that "Chinese Factors" was the reason which cause the copper price rising . Basing on this hypothesis , we made exercise analyze by using dynamic econometric methods to testify that "Chinese Factors" does not influence the rising of coppers" price .In fact , if the market is opening outside and full-competence and there is not any limit in commodity circulating , the information of supply and demand will spread quickly from one market to another and this information can be discovered in prices . With the arbitrage mechanism , the same commodity s price in every markets will come to the same . At present , we don' t know how it inter-influence between the real copper price in SH and the future copper price in SHFE and how it inter-influence between the future copper price in SHFE and the future copper price in LME , and we didn' t know whether there is some mechanism in these markets . On one hand , the real price and the future price of the same commodity has the same influence of supply and demand , so we can think that there is some relation in these three markets ; On the other hand , every market has its peculiar regulations , fees and opening degree , all these may influence the copper price . For these reasons , we made an interact analyzing system in SH real copper market , SHFE future copper market and LME copper market . With the help of econometric methods , we can find how the price of one market can influence the other and why " Chinese Factors" does not exist .