Analysis Of Influential Factors Of Residents Deposits And Deposits Diversion

Since reform and opening, bank deposits of Chinese residents has remained higher growth rate than those of economy and residents income. The rapid growth of residents deposits strongly supports Chinese high economic growth in the past thirty years. The high level of household savings is the performance of the public confidence for our steady running financial system. However, in the management of commercial banks, the stress of increasing principal and interest of residents deposits is "hard constraints" on the commercial bank's financial situation, which increases the commercial bank's operational risks.Bank savings is just a way which residents to distribute remaining funds. In order to distract the operational risks of commercial banks, develop various investment channels actively, and change the condition that residents carry out the single of banking savings, a modest and reasonable diversion for residents deposits has become vital important.In the 20 years'development, the scale of stock market is growing continuously, its system is becoming complete, financial products kinds are becoming various, attracting parts of the residents funds. In addition, the real estate market and consumer market have rapid development, whether they divert residents deposits?Based on the introducing to the theory of modern savings, describing and analyzing the meanings of residents deposits and diversion, this paper studies 9 aspects,25 variables influence of residents deposits using stepwise regression. Then, using Vector Error Correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the diversion effects of residents deposits of stock market, real estate market and consumer market.The study results show that income, interest rates, population factors, uncertainties, investment, revenue and economic growth have evidently influences for residents deposits. This paper also improves the existence of rents of deposits. The empirical results of deposits diversion of stock market, real estate market and consumer market show that the stock market has a significant diversion for deposits, the real estate market and the consumer market not only don't divert residents deposits, but also increase it. Under the analysis of the empirical results, this paper combines the influential factors and the diversion of residents deposits, gives proposes to reasonable and moderate deposits diversion.