Analysis Of Influential Factors Of Residents Deposits And Deposits Diversion

Since reform and opening, with the sustained and rapid development of China's economy and rising income levels, residents deposits has maintained a high and faster growth rate. On the one hand, it play a positive role in promoting China's reform opening up and the economic development; on the other hand, large interest payments would bring enormous pressure and risk on bank development. In order to easing the operational pressure and operational risks to commercial banks, the Government have enacted many positive fiscal policies and monetary policies, opening up a wide range of investment channels, promoting the diversion of residents deposits.Now, diversion channel of residents deposits involves bank savings, the consumer market, stock market, real estate market and so on. Among them, the residents meet the current consumption in the first, then reinvest the disposable income, and divert to the stock market and real estate market.Despite the late start of the stock market, s shares reform gradually deepening, financial market system gradually improving, the stock market has attracted large capital, playing a positive role on the diversion of residents deposits; At the same time, China's real estate market, insurance market have developed rapidly, the relevant systems gradually have improved and perfected, both have played varying degrees Effect role on the diversion of residents deposits.The first chapter describes the current domestic and international dynamics on the diversion of residents deposits; The second chapter introduced the modern theory of deposits, the concept of residents deposits and deposits diversion; The third chapter first analyzes the factors of residents deposits, then using statistical techniques to model, analyzing various factors on the impact of residents deposits; The forth chapter makes use of Vector error correction model, response functions and variance decomposition to analyze the diversion effects of the stock market, real estate market and consumer market; The forth chapter proposes countermeasure and advice to resolve the current high residents.In this paper, empirical research shows:income, interest rates, Demographic factors, uncertainty, investment, economic growth and so on, have different levels of residents deposits; Diversion effect of the stock market is obvious; the real estate market and the consumer market, not only do not have diversion effect, but also they will promote the increasing of residents deposits.