A Study On The Fiscal Sustainability Of The United States

Debt sustainability study that since 1923 has been the subject of academic interest, debt sustainability, since the 90's the object of study is mainly European countries. With the 2007 outbreak of the global financial crisis, Iceland bankruptcy, Greek sovereignty crisis broke out, at the same time, a significant increase in the proportion of U.S. Treasury bonds, soaring deficits, which makes some scholars to re-ignite interest in the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds. The more powerful state, the more easily from the internal collapse of the Soviet Union is a good example, so that that the U.S. strong, there is no risk of holding U.S. treasuries idea is not desirable. First of all, the modest scale of this theory from the bonds start to test the size of the U.S. Treasury found that the scale of national debt over the Maastricht Treaty of the police cordon. The resulting study the need for the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bondsThen, we start from the theory of the budget constraints and study the cointegration relationship between financial revenue and expenditure by empirical analysis method. The essential of the cointegration is the correctness of financial economic theory. We can infer the existence of the corresponding variables on the stability of the financial and economic sense, by examing whether there is cointegration along the economic data series. And then demonstrate the sustainability of fiscal revenue. On this basis, the paper look into sustainability under the influence of the economic environment variables, so the research got closer to reality.Finally, through research, we found that the U.S. treasury bonds before FY2007 the sustainability was good, but after 2007 the U.S. governmental monetary and fiscal policy has been substantially adjusted.2009 by testing the scale of U.S. Treasury bonds is not sustainable. With the next years of moderate economic situation, the United States is bound to adjust the policy of this particular period, but we still believe that sina 1973, the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system, the general trend has not changed, the United States as the core of the world economic system has been weakened, we need more rational allocation of foreign exchange reserves, an appropriate proportion of U.S. dollar assets and adjust the currency basket, as far as possible have a better investment, for example, to speed up the process of acquisition of foreign resources. Only more diversification, more investment property asset preservation, to better respond to financial risks that may arise at any time.