The Factors Of China International Capital Flow

With the increasing development of economic globalization and financial liberalization, cross-border flow of international capital has experienced unprecedented development. Since the nineties of last century, international capital flows developed with a more rapid trend, and promoted the world's economy into the fast track of development. Entering a new century, the most of the states gradually relax the foreign exchange market and capital market regulations, international financial markets continue to improve and develop, the new technological innovation and financial innovation emerge, the cost of international capital flows further reduce, the speed of international capital flows continue to accelerate, and the scale of the flow continue to grow.In the past two years, with the global financial crisis triggered by U.S. Subordinated Debt crisis, international capital flows, especially short-term international capital flows have emerged some new situation. September 2008, along with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the U.S. financial markets began a systemic crisis, short-term international capital began to return, international capital began to flow out from the emerging market countries, flow back to the developed countries. However, the developed countries take an active expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy. In early 2009, these policies began to be effective, the developed countries began the process of a new round of leverage, so short-term capital again to flow into the developing countries, and the developed countries began to Set up risk assets in the global.International capital flows will undoubtedly promote China's economic development, but also flowing into and out of large capital will also no doubt be a threat to China's financial security. To maintain China's economy steady, China must control of international capital flows, and discover the main motive of international capital flows.According to theory combined with empirical research and qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis, this paper analyze the impact factors of international capital flows. Based on the international capital flow data in the period of 2001-2009, a mathematical model was proposed and study using the modern econometric cointegration analysis, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.At last, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis analyze the China's positive and negative impacts of international capital flows, and proposed policy recommendations of improving the international capital flows management.